What If A Particular Event Happened Differently?

[Moonface]

I'm hoping that thread title isn't terrible but I was a little stumped on how to describe what I wanted to question folks about with this thread.

So a couple weeks back I posted a thread about what if Sega didn't leave the console business when they did because I found it interesting to think about, and for some reason today I got to wondering about if Foo Fighters would have still become a thing had Kurt Cobain not committed suicide. Given that Cobain didn't seem to be a huge fan about stardom and such I think that Nirvana as a group would have probably just disbanded from him wanting to step away from it all, but depending on when that might have happened then Foo Fighters would have started way later than they did and that might alter how that venture turned out.

Or like, how much longer would it have taken for WWE to actually ban chair shots to the head and implement the wellness policy they have if Eddie Guerrero and Chris Benoit hadn't both passed away when they did nor from the causes they did. There would be way more wrestlers who could be badly affected by chair shots and other unsafe practices if it had continued longer than it did, and the later implementation of their wellness policy would have probably meant a wrestler like MVP would have likely died, as he had a heart issue that was only detected due to the wellness policy and that was very shortly after the passing of Benoit. Given that his condition was not remotely caused from wrestling I wonder if his passing would have brought about the wellness policy instead or not.

Then there's other stuff like Neopets, Sears, and other missed opportunities that I made a thread about last year where I wondered about the fate of certain people/companies had they not let an opportunity pass them by. I expect even if Sears had got into online shopping when it was the time to do it instead of letting Amazon get a grip on that market for free that Amazon would still end up becoming pretty big because Sears wasn't a worldwide company, and there's probably stuff Sears didn't sell that Amazon does or Amazon would just get into a fierce competition with them but I doubt both companies would survive and one would eventually go under. Unless Amazon were to continue going for the worldwide market I think they could possibly lose to Sears given that the latter would already have the brand recognition and market hold established, and Amazon probably only got to where they are because there was no competition in the online shopping market to make their growth difficult.

I dunno, I just sometimes find myself wondering "what if" style scenarios about really random stuff that happened in the world that aren't huge stuff like "What if Hitler got dropped on his head as a baby and died?" or whatever.

Fortunately I don't often find myself wondering about what if something in my own life I did was done differently because I've managed to accept everything I've done or had happen to me even if a fair amount of it is pretty shit. XD

[Kyng]

I often end up speculating about things like this in my own life .

When I was 15, and I went to a summer camp, I met this girl I really connected with. In the end, nothing came of it (we lived pretty far away from each other, and I wasn't quite ready to be going on long solo trips across the country) - but I do wonder how different my life might be if it had led to something!

Or I wonder what might have happened if I had been a girl. The only thing I know for sure is, I would have been called Amy .

[Maniakkid25]

How did I miss this topic?

So, my friends and I all have a mutual fascination with the history of the 20th century, specifically centering around World War 1, 2, and the Cold War (and all the topics inter-woven within that, such as the Inter-War years, etc). And we have discussed a lot about alternate scenarios, and I have even come up with a catch phrase to explain how I think about the near-inevitability of history as it played out: "I blame the Kaiser." So much of history seems, to both mine and my friends' eyes, have a direct through-line to World War 1. Middle East (excluding Israel)? Sykes-Picot, which was made in World War 1. Cold War? The Soviets wouldn't exist if Lenin wasn't sent back by Germany! Anime!? American intervention lead to the exposure of Disney to Japan. This intervention came as a result of World War 2, and would not have happened if we had treated the Japanese with respect during the treaty processes ending World War 1 (Japan was an unsung nation of World War 1 that provided a lot of materiel, and even fought in the Pacific).

Granted, this doesn't explain EVERYTHING; Africa mostly goes back to the pillaging of Africa during the colonization years. But it's actually shocking how much you can link back to The Great War. And so, we get into long and winding discussions.  Often times, the question of "What if the Archduke wasn't assassinated?" comes up (short answer: there's still a war, but there's a chance that THIS war doesn't happen.) But a few days ago, while discussing World War 2, I asked a question that actually stopped them for a few moments to think about it.

"I wonder what would have happened if France had been able to invade Germany during the Phony War."

So, a little explaining. The Phony War is the time between Britain and France declaring war and Germany invading France, due to the seeming lack of movement of armies between the nations (this is incorrect; just ask Norway what happened to her). But I used a very specific set of words: "had been able to". Not "had been WILLING to". See, the problem wasn't a lack of will, but a problem with the French Doctrine. The French Armed Forces were rebuilt from the ground up after World War 1 to fight one kind of war: a Total War, where every possible avenue is leveraged towards the war effort. The problem was that an invasion of Germany at that time would have been too low-scale a conflict for such a machine. They weren't configured for anything else; it was all or nothing. So, when it was clear that Germany was remilitarizing? They couldn't do anything. When Germany invaded Poland? They were paralyzed by their own machine. It wasn't until Germany launched their attack on France that they could finally get into gear, and I could talk a long time about how that went.

So, what would have happened if France invaded during the Phony War? Chances are good the war would have ended right then and there, and we'd be calling World War 2 "The Second Sino-Japanese War", or "The Japanese War", or maybe even "The Soviet War". See, the sick part is, for all the failings of the French during that war, they had a winning doctrine behind them. They just were inflexible. So, had it come down to an invasion of Germany, Germany would have been able to resist, but France would have butchered them. Maybe not win completely, but they'd make the Germans pay for any victory they would earn, and then? Who knows? Because they couldn't, so they didn't, so it wasn't.

[Moonface]

When I was 15, and I went to a summer camp, I met this girl I really connected with. In the end, nothing came of it (we lived pretty far away from each other, and I wasn't quite ready to be going on long solo trips across the country) - but I do wonder how different my life might be if it had led to something!

This reminded me of the couple of times I "attempted" (in the loosest sense of the word really) to get a girlfriend in secondary school. First attempt was when I actually aimed to ask a girl out, only for a teacher to interrupt which stopped me from being able to ask, and I didn't get the nerve to try finding another opportunity. Second was later in secondary school where I was vibing a lot with a girl who was in a lot of my classes and I forget if we even walked home together a few times, but despite considering asking her out I never did. XD
I somewhat doubt either would've worked out only because I really couldn't tell you a single thing I had in common with either of them.

Anime!? American intervention lead to the exposure of Disney to Japan. This intervention came as a result of World War 2, and would not have happened if we had treated the Japanese with respect during the treaty processes ending World War 1 (Japan was an unsung nation of World War 1 that provided a lot of materiel, and even fought in the Pacific).

Interesting to read that America treated Japan with respect following the end of WW1 only for Japan to end up being such an enemy to America in WW2 that it got them nuked.

"I wonder what would have happened if France had been able to invade Germany during the Phony War."

So, a little explaining. The Phony War is the time between Britain and France declaring war and Germany invading France, due to the seeming lack of movement of armies between the nations (this is incorrect; just ask Norway what happened to her). But I used a very specific set of words: "had been able to". Not "had been WILLING to". See, the problem wasn't a lack of will, but a problem with the French Doctrine. The French Armed Forces were rebuilt from the ground up after World War 1 to fight one kind of war: a Total War, where every possible avenue is leveraged towards the war effort. The problem was that an invasion of Germany at that time would have been too low-scale a conflict for such a machine. They weren't configured for anything else; it was all or nothing. So, when it was clear that Germany was remilitarizing? They couldn't do anything. When Germany invaded Poland? They were paralyzed by their own machine. It wasn't until Germany launched their attack on France that they could finally get into gear, and I could talk a long time about how that went.

So, what would have happened if France invaded during the Phony War? Chances are good the war would have ended right then and there, and we'd be calling World War 2 "The Second Sino-Japanese War", or "The Japanese War", or maybe even "The Soviet War". See, the sick part is, for all the failings of the French during that war, they had a winning doctrine behind them. They just were inflexible. So, had it come down to an invasion of Germany, Germany would have been able to resist, but France would have butchered them. Maybe not win completely, but they'd make the Germans pay for any victory they would earn, and then? Who knows? Because they couldn't, so they didn't, so it wasn't.

I get the feeling you've mentioned the Phony War before because it sounds a little familiar to me and I know I certainly didn't read up on it off my own back in any fashion. XD
I'm curious how things would've gone had the Holocaust not occurred at all or had at least been stopped earlier so considerably less people died to it. Same for if stopping Germany at any point after they started any of their shit that led to WW2 would have still seen Japan getting a nuclear bomb dropped on it two times. Heck, if WW2 in any degree hadn't led to the creation and/or use of a nuclear weapon, I wonder what later point in time would've seen that story unfold and unto whom?

[Maniakkid25]

Frankly, after Fermi discovered Nuclear Fission (the process that breaks atoms apart and causes such bombs to be viable), someone was going to invent the bomb. It may not have been dropped on Japan, but it would have been made by someone. But, Nuclear Fission's discovery was actually an accident; Fermi was trying to discover new elements, not break apart atoms. So, it's entirely possible that Nuclear Fission's discovery could have been pushed back a decade, or maybe it could have been discovered sooner. It's hard to say. Smokeless Gunpowder, as well, kind of sits in a situation where its invention isn't really inevitable; it just kind of happened, and then everyone immediately saw the benefits and leapt on it.

Frankly, if Germany falls out of the war before 1945, I think we could end up living in a world where the bomb wouldn't have been used in attack of another country. This would mean that manpower and materiel can be sooner used in the Pacific. I also think, however, that that would be a world where Operation Downfall happened, and I've made my opinion on that nightmare of military planning known.

I have a friend who has a thesis that explains a harsh truth: "Bad things have to happen so that worse things don't." For example, a world without World War 1 is a world that is far more casual about war, and willing to use force when it wants something. As horrible as that war is, it needs to happen or else we get more, and much worse wars. Would I like to live in a world where that isn't true? Yes. But I don't live in that world.

Similarly, a world without the Holocaust is "better", air quotes, but it doesn't necessarily mean that it's the better option; it's difficult to say what geopolitical consequences that might have. Not from the people that would continue to exist, but from a people who no longer see the warning signs of an imminent existential threat. Germany, more than anyone, has been trying to make damn sure it doesn't repeat the mistakes of the past. It knows the lessons learned from such an event, and we should make sure that those lessons are given to the next generation. We must remember.

Lest we forget.

[Kyng]

When I was 15, and I went to a summer camp, I met this girl I really connected with. In the end, nothing came of it (we lived pretty far away from each other, and I wasn't quite ready to be going on long solo trips across the country) - but I do wonder how different my life might be if it had led to something!

This reminded me of the couple of times I "attempted" (in the loosest sense of the word really) to get a girlfriend in secondary school. First attempt was when I actually aimed to ask a girl out, only for a teacher to interrupt which stopped me from being able to ask, and I didn't get the nerve to try finding another opportunity. Second was later in secondary school where I was vibing a lot with a girl who was in a lot of my classes and I forget if we even walked home together a few times, but despite considering asking her out I never did. XD
I somewhat doubt either would've worked out only because I really couldn't tell you a single thing I had in common with either of them.

Yeah, the girl I met did at least share my interest in science. That was actually the point of the summer camp: we were doing things in the lab, like making our own paints out of chemicals and then painting a picture with them. 

One could say we had good chemistry. 

(Sorry  !)

[Moonface]

Frankly, after Fermi discovered Nuclear Fission (the process that breaks atoms apart and causes such bombs to be viable), someone was going to invent the bomb. It may not have been dropped on Japan, but it would have been made by someone. But, Nuclear Fission's discovery was actually an accident; Fermi was trying to discover new elements, not break apart atoms. So, it's entirely possible that Nuclear Fission's discovery could have been pushed back a decade, or maybe it could have been discovered sooner. It's hard to say. Smokeless Gunpowder, as well, kind of sits in a situation where its invention isn't really inevitable; it just kind of happened, and then everyone immediately saw the benefits and leapt on it.

...

I have a friend who has a thesis that explains a harsh truth: "Bad things have to happen so that worse things don't." For example, a world without World War 1 is a world that is far more casual about war, and willing to use force when it wants something. As horrible as that war is, it needs to happen or else we get more, and much worse wars. Would I like to live in a world where that isn't true? Yes. But I don't live in that world.

Similarly, a world without the Holocaust is "better", air quotes, but it doesn't necessarily mean that it's the better option; it's difficult to say what geopolitical consequences that might have. Not from the people that would continue to exist, but from a people who no longer see the warning signs of an imminent existential threat. Germany, more than anyone, has been trying to make damn sure it doesn't repeat the mistakes of the past. It knows the lessons learned from such an event, and we should make sure that those lessons are given to the next generation. We must remember.

Lest we forget.

Oh for sure, I don't doubt the nuclear bomb would've been made because I wouldn't expect any country not to make a weapon from something if they realize they can, especially since if one country learns how to do something, it isn't going to be long probably until another country learns how to do something very close to it as well. Or even if you're the only country to make a particular thing (say, a model of fighter jet or w/e) you can sell that shit for money to other countries that want help with protecting themselves. I can't even picture a scenario where doing any of this stuff would ever be a bad thing in the scope of the world stage and international relations.

Yeah, I agree with your friends thesis. It reminds me of the saying about health and safety laws and such where it goes something like "laws are written in blood" or something to that effect, where without something bad happening before we wouldn't know better to protect ourselves from it or worse. Same for that other saying of "those who ignore history are doomed to repeat it" or however that one goes.

I suspect a world without the Holocaust occurring would be hard to see, only because if Germany doesn't do it, I'm certain somewhere else would since even if the targeting of Jewish people is removed, the Holocaust targeted plenty of other groups too that other countries have a hate boner for even today and in some of those countries even wish death upon those people. Heck, even with the Holocaust happening there's still been so many genocides since then; the only difference is the world doesn't seem to have given much of a collective shit about them by the looks of it because none of those countries tried starting a conquest into other countries like Germany did.

When I was 15, and I went to a summer camp, I met this girl I really connected with. In the end, nothing came of it (we lived pretty far away from each other, and I wasn't quite ready to be going on long solo trips across the country) - but I do wonder how different my life might be if it had led to something!

This reminded me of the couple of times I "attempted" (in the loosest sense of the word really) to get a girlfriend in secondary school. First attempt was when I actually aimed to ask a girl out, only for a teacher to interrupt which stopped me from being able to ask, and I didn't get the nerve to try finding another opportunity. Second was later in secondary school where I was vibing a lot with a girl who was in a lot of my classes and I forget if we even walked home together a few times, but despite considering asking her out I never did. XD
I somewhat doubt either would've worked out only because I really couldn't tell you a single thing I had in common with either of them.

Yeah, the girl I met did at least share my interest in science. That was actually the point of the summer camp: we were doing things in the lab, like making our own paints out of chemicals and then painting a picture with them. 

One could say we had good chemistry. 

(Sorry  !)

I also just realized that you're the first person I've seen make mention of summer camp in the UK. I brought up to @ShiraNoMai recently that someone at my work is bringing their kid with them as it's part of their summer camp requirements and how I found it odd to send a kid to a summer camp only to then have them with you anyway (since the point of summer camp is to send the kid away during the summer), and how I never knew of the concept of summer camp while I lived in the UK and didn't know anyone who did it to the point I had wondered if we even really have it.